100% Chance of an Earthquake Today!


P
ost-Earthquake Trauma Specialist, Bobby Vassallo, says there is a 100 percent chance of an earthquake today. Though millions of persons may never experience an earthquake, they are very common occurrences on this planet. So today -- somewhere -- an earthquake will occur.

It may be so light that only sensitive instruments will perceive its motion; it may shake houses, rattle windows, and displace small objects; or it may be sufficiently strong to cause property damage, death, and injury.   Recent earthquakes must be studied.

It is estimated that about 700 shocks each year have this capability when centered in a populated area. But as Bobby Vassallo knows, fortunately, most of these potentially destructive earthquakes center in unpopulated areas far from civilization.

Since a major portion of the world's earthquakes each year center around the rim of the Pacific Ocean (Ring of Fire), referred to by seismologists as the circum-Pacific belt, this is the most probable location for today's earthquake. But Vassallo says it could hit any location, because no region is entirely free of earthquakes.

Stating that an earthquake is going to occur today is not really "predicting earthquakes", Bobby says.  To date, they cannot be predicted. But anyone, on any day, could make this statement and it would be true. This is because several million earthquakes occur annually; thereby, thousands occur each day, although most are too small to be located. Vassallo says the problem, however, is in pinpointing the area where a strong shock will center and when it will occur.  Recent earthquakes reports recent earthquakes 6.0 or greater.

Earthquake prediction is a future possibility, though. Just as the Weather Bureau now predicts hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms, the NEIC may one day issue forecasts on earthquakes. Earthquake research was stepped up after the Alaska shock in 1964. Today, research is being conducted by the USGS and other federal and state agencies, as well as universities and private institutions. Earthquake prediction may some day become a reality, but only after much more is learned about the earthquake mechanism.  Recent Earthquakes is proud to put forth these pages in order to guide you in preparation for this looming possibility.


70% Probability Major Quake Will Strike San Francisco Bay Region Between now and 2030

On the basis of research conducted since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists conclude that there is a 70% probability of at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing widespread damage, striking the San Francisco Bay region before 2030. Major quakes may occur in any part of this rapidly growing region. This emphasizes the urgency for all communities in the Bay region to continue studying recent earthquakes and preparing for earthquakes.


By Carey Gillam

KANSAS CITY, Mo., Nov 20, 2008   (Reuters) -

People in a vast seismic zone in the southern and midwestern United States would face catastrophic damage if a major earthquake struck there and should ensure that builders keep that risk in mind, a government report said on Thursday.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency said if earthquakes strike in what geologists define as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, they would cause "the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States."

FEMA predicted a large earthquake would cause "widespread and catastrophic physical damage" across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee -- home to some 44 million people.  Tennessee is likely to be hardest hit, according to the study that sought to gauge the impact of a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in order to guide the government's response.

In Tennessee alone, it forecast hundreds of collapsed bridges, tens of thousands of severely damaged buildings and a half a million households without water.  Transportation systems and hospitals would be wrecked, and police and fire departments impaired, the study said.

The zone, named for the town of New Madrid in Missouri's southeast corner, is subject to frequent mild earthquakes.  Experts have long tried to predict the likelihood of a major quake like those that struck in 1811 and 1812. These shifted the course of the Mississippi River and rang church bells on the East Coast but caused few deaths amid a sparse population.

"People who live in these areas and the people who build in these areas certainly need to take into better account that at some time there is ... expected to be a catastrophic earthquake in that area, and they'd better be prepared for it," said FEMA spokesperson Mary Margaret Walker. (Editing by Andrew Stern and Xavier Briand)  Bobby Vassallo predicts this area to be the next hotspot.



China: 3 Quakes Rattle Western Region, Killing One


Published: July 25, 2008

Two and a half months after an earthquake killed nearly 70,000 people in western China, three earthquakes struck in the same region, killing one person and injuring at least 10, according to Xinhua, the state news agency. The latest fatality occurred in Ningqiang County, in Shaanxi Province, where a 5.6-magnitude quake struck at 3:54 a.m. The two other quakes followed, with the last being the strongest, at a magnitude of 6.0, at the juncture of Ningqiang County and Qingchuan County, in Sichuan Province.

China's earthquake victims build hope from Ruins

How do earthquakes form?  We are often asked that question and about the biggest earthquakes and earthquake damage.  Please read the following pages at Recent Earthquakes for answers to questions.  Biggest earthquakes? Earthquake damage?   All here at Recent Earthquakes.net

The doctor’s sign is perched on top of a great mound of roadside rubble that was a three-storey house before the Sichuan earthquake of May 12.

Incredulous, we clamber up the fallen masonry. On the far side a doctor has set up a makeshift surgery beneath a canvas awning in what was once his garden.

Long Shifu is 62. He lost his brother, brother-in-law and everything he owned in the quake. He, his wife and widowed sister-in-law live in another tent. His only medicines are what he managed to retrieve from the ruins of his home, but for two months now he has been treating his patients for free.

“This is a skill I learnt from childhood. People need me,” he said. Suddenly he burst into tears — a brief lowering of his guard after so much fortitude.

Recent Earthquakes story continues below on biggest earthquakes and " how do earthquakes form."

There is nothing exceptional about Dr Long. A similar spirit pervades Jiulong, a once-beautiful farming town that sits amid lush green ricefields at the foot of steep, forested mountains. The earth is so rich, locals say, that even chopsticks stuck in the ground grow into trees.

Hundreds, probably thousands, of its 11,000 inhabitants — nobody knows exactly how many — are now buried in that earth. Hardly a building was left standing after the quake.

But in the two days that The Times spent in Jiulong there was no bitterness or self-pity to be found — just an astounding determination to rebuild and recover. Here, and throughout an earthquake zone several times larger than Wales, we found the very best of that uniquely Chinese fusion of collective action and individual enterprise — of communism and capitalism.

It was profoundly inspiring, a stark contrast to America’s response to Hurricane Katrina, and marred only by the hierarchy’s obsession with suppressing bad news. In Jiulong the primary school collapsed — probably because the builders used sub-standard materials. About 100 children and 11 teachers died.

Early on our second day a local police chief demanded that we leave. He relented only after banning interviews and ordering us to go nowhere near the ruined school. Jiulong is only one of hundreds of devastated towns and cities in a province where 70,000 died, The level of activity here is extraordinary. Visitors are greeted by ubiquitous red banners thanking the hundreds of volunteers who arrived from across China. They proclaim “United we will surmount our difficulties”, “Work together to rebuild our town” and “Let’s win the ultimate battle against the earthquake”.

The town is ringed by camps for the homeless and the volunteers. There are tented summer camps for Jiulong’s children, staffed by teachers from China’s American-run international schools, and a Red Cross camp where British, Spanish and Austrian volunteers are helping to build a new sanitation system.

In the flattened town centre soldiers from the widely praised People’s Liberation Army are restoring basic services. In barely a month 400 volunteer labourers have erected 40,000 sq m (430,500 sq ft) of blue and grey pre-fabricated homes — enough for 400 families. A China Telecom kiosk offers the townfolk free calls. Electricity is now provided free through cables strung along the roads.

Most striking however is the enterprise and resolve of townsfolk enduring the intense summer heat, seasonal downpours and occasional aftershocks in tents pitched amid the wreckage of their homes. Huo Yongbin, 40, lost his wife and father, but has already reopened his barber shop beneath an awning in what remains of the market place. “The dead are dead. You don’t want to die with them,” he said as he clipped an old man’s hair for three yuan (25 pence).

Near by, Xu Ming, 26, who worked as a restaurant chef before the quake, has erected a few rickety tables and serves customers diced pigs’ intestines and noodles. “It makes me enough to feed my family,” he says.

Zhong Siqi, 23, has set up an embroidery “factory” beside the remains of the home where her 81-year-old grandmother was crushed to death — most of the victims were very young or very old and unable to run outside when the 7.9 magnitude quake hit. About 30 women sew Chinese New Year decorations, which an altruistic property developer has agreed to buy. “They come to talk and forget and make a little pocket money,” Ms Zhong said. “It helps a lot. We have fun and laugh,” said Li Qin, who lost her baby son.

One encampment contains nearly 600 refugees from three mountain villages. They have no intention of moving into the prefabricated homes. They are waiting impatiently for permission to start building permanent homes, and believe most will be finished by winter. These are people raised on hardship, on the Chinese notion of chiku (“eating bitterness”).

“We’re very determined. We’re not sad because we have hope, and so much help,” Zhong Qifang, their chief, said. One of their number, Zeng Yang, 27, has opened a rudimentary shop in the encampment. She sells vegetables, noodles and eggs on shelves fashioned from old doors, and has salvaged a fridge for cold beer. “Food Shop for the Convenience of the People”, a banner proclaims. She and her husband rise at 4am to fetch supplies from the nearest city. She makes no profit, and gives away unsold produce each night.

Yuan Houcai, 40, retrieves unbroken bricks from the debris, earning 40 yuan (£3) a day to feed his parents, wife and two children. “What else can I do? Everyone has suffered,” he said. The stoicism of the survivors is incredible. As is their generosity. People who have nothing give us food and cold water. Only occasionally do we glimpse their real agony.

A young woman doctor leads us to what used to be Jiulong’s hospital. She finds the jacket of a dead colleague and crumples into tears. During the days she is busy, she said, but at night she lies awake thinking of him. Sometimes, to console herself, she gets up and texts him on her mobile.

At one of the summer camps, beside a pear orchard, we read accounts of the quake written by children. “In my dreams there is rubble, and in the rubble I see hands waving and blood running like a spring,” one ten-year-old wrote. “I hate the earthquake and the heaven that makes so many people disappear,” wrote another.

Lu Zhengrong, 32, weeps as she tells us how she spent three days clawing through the wreckage of the school looking for Chen Dake, her seven-year-old son. Rescuers finally found him in a stairwell. “He wasn’t injured. I think he died because he couldn’t breathe,” she said.

If there is one emotion holding this town back it is anger at what happened to the schoolchildren. The parents of the dead tried to go to Beijing to complain. Local officials stopped them. They tried to complain to the Government in Mianzhu, the nearest city. Again they were stopped.

Before leaving, we defy the police chief and visit the school. Amid the shattered walls, twisted girders and collapsed roofs parents have left prayer wheels, incense sticks and offerings of toys and food for their dead sons and daughters. A banner floats above this apocalyptic scene. It reads: “The children died without closing their eyes. How can the living be at ease?”

Recent Earthquakes staff were touched by that second to the last sentence.  Recent earthquakes'  Bobby Vassallo says, "do what you can to help."   bobby vassallo .org

The toll

69,197 confirmed dead, 61 days after quake

18,341 still missing

5,405 in hospital

£4.3bn pledged by China for quake relief

£4.2bn raised from donations

1.58m tents sent to quake areas

16,993 aftershocks detected

Source: www.reliefweb.int

California- 99.7 Percent Chance of Big Earthquake


LOS ANGELES — California — the land of sun, beaches and earthquakes — faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong temblor by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide forecast of the seismic threat.

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will hit the Golden State in the next 30 years.
The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which measured 6.7 on the Richter scale, killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage. "It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

That in itself is kind of a no-brainer. There have been at least five major California earthquakes since 1970. The strongest, the 1993 Landers quake, measured 7.3 but occurred in a remote area, as did the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in the Mojave Desert. The 1989 Loma Prieta quake in the Bay Area, which killed 67 people, also measured 7.1. (see recent earthquakes "Historic Quakes").

Despite the new results, scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say it should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country. "A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.

California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of the Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt. The history of these can be seen at Recent Earthquakes.

Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates. The latest analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, SCEC and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

In the study, researchers computed the likelihood of a fault rupture using new information about where past quakes have struck, location of hard-to-spot faults and their slip rates as well as satellite-based GPS data of the Earth's crustal movement. Scientists determined a Northridge-size shock occurs on average once every five years. The chance of a temblor that size striking the Los Angeles Basin is 67 percent compared to 63 percent for the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Francisco figure is similar to a 2003 analysis that put the probability at 62 percent. There is no past comparison that exists for Los Angeles.

Given California's seismic and recent earthquake history, the new results should come as no surprise, said David Schwartz, a USGS geologist in Menlo Park who was not part of the study. Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7 shock or higher; a 46 percent chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5 percent chance of a magnitude 8. Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.

The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries. Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.
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