100% Chance of an Earthquake Today!
Post-Earthquake Trauma Specialist, Bobby Vassallo, says there is a 100
percent chance of an earthquake today. Though millions of persons may
never experience an earthquake, they are very common occurrences on
this planet. So today -- somewhere -- an earthquake will occur.
It
may be so light that only sensitive instruments will perceive its
motion; it may shake houses, rattle windows, and displace small
objects; or it may be sufficiently strong to cause property damage,
death, and injury. Recent earthquakes must be studied.
It is
estimated that about 700 shocks each year have this capability when
centered in a populated area. But as Bobby Vassallo knows, fortunately,
most of these potentially destructive earthquakes center in unpopulated
areas far from civilization.
Since a major portion of the
world's earthquakes each year center around the rim of the Pacific
Ocean (Ring of Fire), referred to by seismologists as the
circum-Pacific belt, this is the most probable location for today's
earthquake. But Vassallo says it could hit any location, because no
region is entirely free of earthquakes.
Stating that an
earthquake is going to occur today is not really "predicting
earthquakes", Bobby says. To date, they cannot be predicted. But
anyone, on any day, could make this statement and it would be true.
This is because several million earthquakes occur annually; thereby,
thousands occur each day, although most are too small to be located.
Vassallo says the problem, however, is in pinpointing the area where a
strong shock will center and when it will occur. Recent earthquakes
reports recent earthquakes 6.0 or greater.
Earthquake prediction
is a future possibility, though. Just as the Weather Bureau now
predicts hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms, the NEIC may
one day issue forecasts on earthquakes. Earthquake research was stepped
up after the Alaska shock in 1964. Today, research is being conducted
by the USGS and other federal and state agencies, as well as
universities and private institutions. Earthquake prediction may some
day become a reality, but only after much more is learned about the
earthquake mechanism. Recent Earthquakes is proud to put forth these
pages in order to guide you in preparation for this looming possibility.
70% Probability Major Quake Will Strike San Francisco Bay Region Between now and 2030
On
the basis of research conducted since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake,
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists conclude that there
is a 70% probability of at
least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing widespread
damage, striking the San Francisco Bay region before 2030. Major quakes
may occur in any part of this rapidly growing region. This emphasizes
the urgency for all communities in the Bay region to continue studying
recent earthquakes and preparing for earthquakes.
By Carey Gillam
KANSAS CITY, Mo., Nov 20, 2008 (Reuters) -
People in a vast seismic zone in the southern and midwestern United States would face catastrophic damage if a major earthquake struck there and should ensure that builders keep that risk in mind, a government report said on Thursday.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency said if earthquakes strike in what geologists define as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, they would cause "the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States."FEMA predicted a large earthquake would cause "widespread and catastrophic physical damage" across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee -- home to some 44 million people. Tennessee is likely to be hardest hit, according to the study that sought to gauge the impact of a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in order to guide the government's response.
In Tennessee alone, it forecast hundreds of collapsed bridges, tens of thousands of severely damaged buildings and a half a million households without water. Transportation systems and hospitals would be wrecked, and police and fire departments impaired, the study said.
The zone, named for the town of New Madrid in Missouri's southeast corner, is subject to frequent mild earthquakes. Experts have long tried to predict the likelihood of a major quake like those that struck in 1811 and 1812. These shifted the course of the Mississippi River and rang church bells on the East Coast but caused few deaths amid a sparse population.
"People who live in these areas and the people who build in these areas certainly need to take into better account that at some time there is ... expected to be a catastrophic earthquake in that area, and they'd better be prepared for it," said FEMA spokesperson Mary Margaret Walker. (Editing by Andrew Stern and Xavier Briand) Bobby Vassallo predicts this area to be the next hotspot.
China: 3 Quakes Rattle Western Region, Killing One
Published: July 25, 2008
Two and a half months after an earthquake killed nearly 70,000 people in western China, three earthquakes struck in the same region, killing one person and injuring at least 10, according to Xinhua, the state news agency. The latest fatality occurred in Ningqiang County, in Shaanxi Province, where a 5.6-magnitude quake struck at 3:54 a.m. The two other quakes followed, with the last being the strongest, at a magnitude of 6.0, at the juncture of Ningqiang County and Qingchuan County, in Sichuan Province.
China's earthquake victims build hope from Ruins
How do earthquakes form? We are often asked that question and about the biggest earthquakes and earthquake damage. Please read the following pages at Recent Earthquakes for answers to questions. Biggest earthquakes? Earthquake damage? All here at Recent Earthquakes.net
LOS ANGELES — California — the land of sun, beaches and earthquakes — faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong temblor by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide forecast of the seismic threat.
New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will hit the Golden State in the next 30 years.
The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.
The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which measured 6.7 on the Richter scale, killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage. "It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.
That in itself is kind of a no-brainer. There have been at least five major California earthquakes since 1970. The strongest, the 1993 Landers quake, measured 7.3 but occurred in a remote area, as did the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in the Mojave Desert. The 1989 Loma Prieta quake in the Bay Area, which killed 67 people, also measured 7.1. (see recent earthquakes "Historic Quakes").
Despite the new results, scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say it should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country. "A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.
California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of the Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt. The history of these can be seen at Recent Earthquakes.
Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates. The latest analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, SCEC and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.
In the study, researchers computed the likelihood of a fault rupture using new information about where past quakes have struck, location of hard-to-spot faults and their slip rates as well as satellite-based GPS data of the Earth's crustal movement. Scientists determined a Northridge-size shock occurs on average once every five years. The chance of a temblor that size striking the Los Angeles Basin is 67 percent compared to 63 percent for the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Francisco figure is similar to a 2003 analysis that put the probability at 62 percent. There is no past comparison that exists for Los Angeles.
Given California's seismic and recent earthquake history, the new results should come as no surprise, said David Schwartz, a USGS geologist in Menlo Park who was not part of the study. Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7 shock or higher; a 46 percent chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5 percent chance of a magnitude 8. Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.
The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries. Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.
Bobby Vassallo - Recent Earthquakes